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February 15, 2022

Inflation volatility is coming says Ruffer LLP’s investment director Duncan MacInnes.

Inflation volatility is coming says Ruffer LLP’s investment director Duncan MacInnes.

Inflation is at a 40-year high. Given Ruffer has warned against rising inflation for some time, you might be forgiven for thinking we’ve cracked open the fancy (chocolate-covered) biscuits.

Unfortunately, we cannot rest upon our laurels. Because, ironically, now inflation is perceived as a problem, we can rest assured it will soon appear ‘Transitory’. But appearances can be deceptive.

January 24, 2022

Financial conditions have never been so accommodative says Ruffer LLP’s investment director Duncan MacInnes.

Financial conditions have never been so accommodative says Ruffer LLP’s investment director Duncan MacInnes.

Omicron or not, the US economy is booming. The cocktail of pent-up animal spirits, household net worth at all-time highs plus hefty measures of monetary and fiscal stimulus is a potent one. The Atlanta Federal Reserve ‘NowCast’ has US Q4 real GDP at 7%; add 6% CPI inflation and you get a 13% nominal growth rate [1]. The growth picture is similar in Europe and the UK. One would have to go back 50 years to find a similar surge.

January 12, 2022

When I was on honeymoon in Venice, I spotted a pair of Chinese dragons, one chewing a toenail and the other picking its nose. Smart shop, Grand Canal – my wife Jane and I set an upper limit on what we’d pay. We later walked out with the dragons having written a cheque for slightly over four times our upper limit.

When I was on honeymoon in Venice, I spotted a pair of Chinese dragons, one chewing a toenail and the other picking its nose. Smart shop, Grand Canal – my wife Jane and I set an upper limit on what we’d pay. We later walked out with the dragons having written a cheque for slightly over four times our upper limit.

December 11, 2021

Family offices in Asia-Pacific are fostering a newly energised enthusiasm for investments in the $1.9 trillion cryptocurrency market, ahead of European and North American counterparts, buoyed by pandemic-defying increases in wealth over the past 12 months.

Family offices in Asia-Pacific are fostering a newly energised enthusiasm for investments in the $1.9 trillion cryptocurrency market, ahead of European and North American counterparts, buoyed by pandemic-defying increases in wealth over the past 12 months.

October 1, 2021

The Covid-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening.

The Covid-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening.

Amid this backdrop, our outlook favours equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks.

Key market themes

October 1, 2021

In the world of investment, there are few things everyone can agree on. You’re either a bull or a bear, a dove or a hawk, for or against.

In the world of investment, there are few things everyone can agree on. You’re either a bull or a bear, a dove or a hawk, for or against.

If there’s one thing investors do know for sure—it’s that bonds and equities can be used in combination to achieve a ‘balanced portfolio’.

At the simplest level, this means building portfolios with some equities for the good times, and bonds for the bad. Typically, in a 60/40 split.

July 12, 2021

Business families have demonstrated their resilience during the Covid-19 pandemic, but some principals are concerned the storm clouds of inflation are gathering over their roads to recovery.

Business families have demonstrated their resilience during the Covid-19 pandemic, but some principals are concerned the storm clouds of inflation are gathering over their roads to recovery.

May 18, 2021

We have reached the point where many family offices are open to some form of crypto-assets investment, and a number have allocated serious resources to crypto-assets. In some cases, this is driven by the lure of returns, in other cases by next generation family members advocating crypto investment.

I wrote an article for CampdenFB in November 2017, which included the following statement:

“Only a courageous chief investment officer would stand before a family committee meeting to advocate a crypto investment... But perceptions are changing.”

July 10, 2020

We’ve heard a lot about how the coronavirus has made an impact across the fintech realm, but what about in the crypto space? With an unstable stock market, why weren’t investors fleeing to alternative, blockchain-based assets?

We’ve heard a lot about how the coronavirus has made an impact across the fintech realm, but what about in the crypto space? With an unstable stock market, why weren’t investors fleeing to alternative, blockchain-based assets?

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